set.seed(47) n = 200 a = rnorm(n,0,1) a0 = rnorm(1,0,1) an1 = rnorm(1,0,1) theta = c(0.2, 0.5) y = NULL y[1] = a[1] + theta[1]*a0 + theta[2]*an1 y[2] = a[2] + theta[1]*a[1] + theta[2]*a0 for (t in 3:n) { y[t] = a[t] + theta[1]*a[t-1] + theta[2]*a[t-2] } MAfit = arima(y,order = c(0,0,2)) residuals(MAfit)[1] # (returns 2.745251) coef(MAfit)[3] # (returns 3.122668) plot(y) hist(residuals(MAfit)) coef(MAfit) ### n <- 50 y2 <- 1:50 a = c(0, 0.5, 0.3) y2[1] <- 0 y2[2] <- 1 #y = NULL #a[1] + theta[1]*a0 + theta[2]*an1 #y[2] = a[2] + theta[1]*a[1] + theta[2]*a0 for (t in 3:n) { epsilon <- rnorm(1,0,2) y2[t] = a[1] + a[2]*y2[t-1] + a[3]*y2[t-2] + epsilon } acf(y2) pacf(y2) ARfit = arima(y2,order = c(2,0,0)) residuals(ARfit)[1] # (returns 2.745251) coef(ARfit)[3] # (returns 3.122668) plot(y2) hist(residuals(ARfit)) coef(ARfit) summary(ARfit) ARfit$sigma2